Talking to my sister last night, and she wanted my take on the Iranian protests, and I said it's all about colonial capitalism. Venezuela, Greenland, Iran, Ukraine, Taiwan. On a macro level, I think the major powers are trying to accumulate as many resources as possible for the next century. Four main resources are natural resources (oil, minerals, water), financial market resources, currency, and military (weapons and bases). US dominates in all four areas. The US accounts for less than 4% of the world's population but makes up 30% of global GDP. Dollars are the international currency; Wall Street drives other markets; and we have hundreds of military bases on every continent, serving as sentinels of reconnaissance and power. US weapons are considered the best and are sold worldwide to our allies. The rest of the world knows this, and they either love it, hate it, or are ambivalent to having to deal with the US in every facet. The primary countries that hate this scenario are Russia, China, and Iran. That is why the US has bases around all of those countries. That's why they have a belt of naval bases along China's coast, from Japan to Taiwan and the Philippines. US Navy can make trade w/ China very difficult at any time. And the Chinese gov HATES this and is trying to put a hole in that belt by taking over Taiwan.
If you're a small country and you hate the US you're going to run to Russia, China or Iran for help. The problem is that 2 out of 3 countries are incredibly corrupt, dysfunctional, terrorist states hated by their own ppl: Iran and Russia. And also Iran and Russia are paper tigers: they have terrible currencies that nobody trades in, int'l markets ignore them, their weapons are crap, and they're under sanctions b/c of war.
As a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (to acquire more resources), they triggered a domino effect: they lost Assad in Syria, Venezuela got weaker, and so did Iran. When Iran became weaker so did Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis. US gives more weapons to Israel to counter the regional power of Iran and its terrorist orgs who want to rip down all Western (read US) influence by using radical Islamic fighters. The problem is -as stated before - Iran and Russia are incredibly corrupt and therefore incompetent. And in comparison, Israel and the US are usually efficient, forward-thinking, technologically advanced, diplomatically savvy, and financially stable w/ a population that isn't trying to overthrow their gov (emphasis on 'usually' during these Trumpian times).
So now Iran is backed into a corner: they support Russia in Ukraine and provide the bulk of its drones, Syria is in US hands, Hezbollah and Hamas leadership are decimated, Houthis can only fire off rockets at ships, and Tehran is suffering from a lack of water. Due to a 60-yr drought and water mismanagement, the population is parched, poor, and angry. And the only thing Iran has to offer is 'hate Jews...hate America,' but the ppl aren't buying it anymore. They can't turn on their faucets and get water. Russia can't support them with as many weapons b/c they're still entangled in Ukraine.
Now it pretty much boils down to the US and China. If you're a smaller nation with poor infrastructure and natural resources, those are the options. Both countries are going to colonize you for your resources, get you on their 'sugar daddy credit card,' and tie you up with debt you probably can't pay back; it's just a question of which is the better bet. China has no interest in uplifting the ppl of Venezuela or the Sudan or anywhere. They're just as vicious as US corporations when it comes to doing business. So, considering what has happened to Iran and Russian allies, the US is looking like the better bet. The preening and bragging that Trump is doing is odious, but he knows that with Russia fading, most countries in the world are going to have to choose between China and the US. And the US -for now- has the upper hand in weapons, bases, financial markets, currency, and economic might. Iran's regional power is done. Russia has its own "Vietnam" in Ukraine that is draining the nation. Maduro was meeting with Russian and Chinese officials before he was kidnapped. b/c he knew the deal: he was running a corrupt, dysfunctional nation that he destroyed. And the only thing he could offer to major powers was the nation's natural resources.
All across the globe, most of these conflicts are being driven by the 4 resources (natural, market, currency, and military). Iran and Russia are falling dominoes in a bigger game.
No comments:
Post a Comment